On-Chain Analysis Masterclass
Master on-chain metrics to understand market cycles, whale behavior, and make data-driven trading decisions. Interactive simulators included.
What is On-Chain Analysis?
On-chain analysis examines blockchain data to understand market behavior. Unlike technical analysis (price charts) or fundamental analysis (project evaluation), on-chain analysis studies actual network activity: transactions, wallet movements, and holder behavior.
Because blockchains are transparent, we can see:
- When coins were last moved - Distinguishing HODLers from traders
- Exchange flows - Anticipating buying/selling pressure
- Whale movements - Following smart money
- Profit/loss levels - Understanding market psychology
Key On-Chain Metrics
These are the most important metrics used by professional analysts. Click each to learn more.
MVRV Ratio Deep Dive
The MVRV ratio is one of the most reliable cycle indicators. Simulate market conditions and understand how this metric signals tops and bottoms.
MVRV Ratio Indicator
Interpretation
MVRV at 2.10 suggests the market is in the fair value zone. Continue monitoring for directional signals.
Exchange Flow Analysis
Tracking when coins move to or from exchanges helps predict buying/selling pressure.
Exchange Flow (BTC)
Negative netflow = More BTC leaving exchanges than entering. This is generally bullish as it indicates accumulation.
Whale Movement Tracking
Large holders ("whales") can move markets. Tracking their activity provides early signals.
Live Whale Alerts (Simulated)
Large BTC movements detected on-chain
🟢 Exchange → Wallet = Accumulation (bullish)
🔴 Wallet → Exchange = Potential selling (bearish)
🔵 Wallet → Wallet = OTC trade or internal transfer
HODL Waves & Supply Distribution
Understanding how long coins have been held reveals market sentiment and potential supply shocks.
Bitcoin HODL Waves
Distribution of BTC by wallet age (last moved)
What This Means
Long-term holders (1+ year) control 47% of supply. High long-term holder ratio indicates strong conviction and reduced selling pressure.
On-Chain Analysis Tools
Compare the best platforms for on-chain research, from free options to professional-grade tools.
On-Chain Analysis Tools
Glassnode
Bitcoin/ETH Analytics
Nansen
Smart Money Tracking
Dune Analytics
Custom Queries
Arkham Intelligence
Entity Tracking
DeBank
Portfolio + Whales
Applying On-Chain to Trading
Accumulation Signals (Bullish)
- • MVRV below 1.0 (extreme undervalue)
- • Exchange reserves declining
- • Long-term holder supply increasing
- • SOPR below 1.0 (capitulation)
- • Whale wallets accumulating
Distribution Signals (Bearish)
- • MVRV above 3.5 (extreme overvalue)
- • Large exchange inflows
- • Long-term holders distributing
- • High SOPR (profit taking)
- • Whale selling activity
Important Caveats
- • On-chain is best for Bitcoin, less reliable for alts
- • Metrics work over weeks/months, not days
- • Combine with technical and fundamental analysis
- • Whale labels can be inaccurate
- • Past patterns don't guarantee future results