Why Is Bitcoin Price Dropping? 7 Key Reasons
Bitcoin has dropped 49% from its all-time high of $126,210 to around $64,000 in the February 2026 crash. From Trump's unprecedented tariff war to $25 billion in liquidations, ETF outflows, and Fed policy uncertainty — here are the 7 key reasons behind the crash and what investors should do next.
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7 Key Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Dropping
Trump Tariffs & Global Trade War
On February 1, 2026, President Trump signed executive orders imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and announced tariffs on NATO allies and EU exports. China immediately retaliated with 15% tariffs on US coal and LNG. The EU prepared counter-measures. This unprecedented global trade war escalation triggered a massive risk-off selloff across every asset class, with Bitcoin as the most speculative asset hit hardest.
Historical Bitcoin Crashes: Every Time BTC Recovered
| Year | Event | Peak | Bottom | Drawdown | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Mt. Gox Hack | $32 | $2 | -94% | ~2 years to new ATH ($32 → $1,100 in Nov 2013) |
| 2014-15 | Mt. Gox Collapse | $1,100 | $170 | -85% | ~3 years to new ATH ($1,100 → $20K in Dec 2017) |
| 2018 | ICO Bubble Burst | $20,000 | $3,200 | -84% | ~3 years to new ATH ($20K → $69K in Nov 2021) |
| 2022 | Luna/FTX Collapse | $69,000 | $15,500 | -77% | ~2 years to new ATH ($69K → $126K in Oct 2025) |
| 2025-26 | Tariff War Crash | $126,210 | $64,000 | -49% | Currently ongoing — recovery timeline developing |
Key Pattern: Bitcoin has crashed 77-94% in previous cycles and recovered to new all-time highs every single time. The current 49% drawdown is the shallowest major correction in Bitcoin's history, suggesting institutional infrastructure (ETFs, corporate treasuries) may be providing a higher floor than previous cycles.
Expert Opinions: Bear vs Bull
Bearish Targets
Stifel (Barry Bannister)
$38,000"Bitcoin could fall to $38K if trade war triggers a recession. The halving cycle narrative is broken."
Michael Burry
$50,000"Overleveraged crypto market meets real economic contraction. $50K is the realistic floor if tariffs persist."
Peter Brandt
$60,000"Head and shoulders pattern on weekly chart targets $60K. The breakdown below $70K confirms bear market."
Bullish Targets
Arthur Hayes
$200,000"Trade war = money printing. Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively. This is the final shakeout before $200K."
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)
$150,000"Bitcoin's long-term thesis is intact. Institutional adoption via ETFs creates structural demand. $150K by end of 2026."
Tom Lee (Fundstrat)
$130,000"Tariff panic is the "max pain" event. Once resolved, risk assets will rip higher. Buy the fear at sub-$70K levels."
What Should Investors Do?
Dollar-Cost Average (DCA) Into the Dip
Instead of trying to time the bottom, spread your purchases over weeks or months. Historical data shows that buying when Fear Index is below 15 has been extremely profitable over 12-24 month horizons. Use Binance Auto-Invest to automate daily or weekly BTC purchases.
Avoid Leverage — Capital Preservation First
$25B in liquidations since November proves that leverage kills during extended downtrends. If you must use leverage, keep it at 2x maximum with isolated margin and tight stop-losses. 91% of liquidations were longs — the crowd was on the wrong side.
Rebalance Your Portfolio
Increase BTC allocation relative to altcoins — BTC fell 49% from ATH while SOL crashed 65%, SUI 72%, and most memecoins lost 80%+. Hold 30-40% stablecoins as dry powder. Set limit buy orders at key support levels ($60K, $55K, $50K) to catch further dips automatically.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Important Risk Warning
- •Bitcoin has fallen 49% from its all-time high. Further downside is possible, especially if tariff wars escalate.
- •$25 billion in crypto has been liquidated since November 2025. Leverage dramatically amplifies losses.
- •Past recovery patterns do not guarantee future results. Each crash is different.
- •This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
- •Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Always do your own research (DYOR).
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This article is for informational and educational purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Bitcoin has fallen 49% from its all-time high due to multiple factors including tariff wars, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations. Further declines are possible. Always conduct your own research before trading. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.